A Joint-Venture between Sino-America for
better cooperation, better co-development, better co-rising and better life to all mankind.
A keynote Speech at Shanghai Forum on May 29, 2010
by Prof. Leo KoGuan
This is my really great honor to give a key note address to such distinguished and knowledgeable audience.
能够在此向各位贵宾和学者发表主题演讲，我感到荣幸之至。
On April 12 this year, while attending the Nuclear Security Summit in Washington, President Hu Jintao laid down a five-point proposal for improving China-US relations:
今年4月12日，胡锦涛主席在华盛顿出席核安全峰会期间就发展中美关系提出了五点建议：
- Keep track of bilateral ties and establish a PARTNERSHIP to jointly deal with mutual common problems;
第一，始终坚持中美关系的正确方向，建立伙伴关系，共同应对双方关心的问题。
- Both sides must respect each other’s CORE INTERESTS and major concerns to promote a healthy and stable bilateral ties. China’s core interests, and China’s sovereignty and territorial integrity are the Taiwan and Tibet issues, which must be respected and handled with caution;
第二，彼此尊重核心利益和重大关切，推动双边关系健康、稳定发展。台湾问题、西藏问题等事关中国的核心利益和中国主权及领土完整的问题必须得到尊重并谨慎处理。
- Multilevel Sino-U.S. relationships from presidential to lower levels.
第三，保持高层和各级别的交往。
- Strengthen joint cooperation and coordination in economics and trade, counter-terrorism, energy, environment, and law enforcement.
第四，深化双方在经贸、反恐、能源、环境和执法等领域的合作与协调。
- Strengthen communication and coordination on major international and regional issues especially within the framework of the G20.
第五，加强双方在重大国际和地区问题上的沟通和协调，特别是在G20框架内的沟通与协调。
The stage:
This April, the Chinese military announced that it will seek to project her naval power including in the PLA arsenals are the up and coming Chinese aircraft carrier battle group, a newly developed ballistic missiles that can sink any aircraft carrier and ICBM satellite killer. These new capabilities and the like enable China to reach beyond the Chinese territorial waters to the Pacific shipping lanes that connect China to its oil ports in the Middle East, an area where the US Navy has until now been the sole dominant force. China wants her warships to escort commercial vessels from as far as the Persian Gulf to the Strait of Malacca in Southeast Asia to protect Chinese Interests. In March, two Chinese warships made their first appearance in the Middle East at Abu Dhabi. Last April, Chinese officials told the Obama administration that the South China Sea was now part of the “core interests” of Chinese sovereignty. Note that this doctrine of “core interest” is listed as the second of China’s five-point proposal.
现状分析：
今年4月，中国军方宣布将提升其海军实力，最新的武器装备包括即将研发制造的航空母舰战斗群，足以击沉航空母舰的新型弹道导弹以及洲际弹道反卫星武器。这些新军力将使中国海军的控制范围从其近海拓展到连接中东油田的太平洋航线，而到目前为止，这一地区还是美国海军独霸天下。为了保护国家利益，中国政府希望海军能从波斯湾到南亚的马六甲海峡为商船一路护航。今年3月，两艘中国战舰首次在中东的阿布扎比亮相。去年4月，中方官员告知奥巴马政府南中国海现在已经成为事关中国主权问题的“核心利益”。请注意，中国政府在“五点建议”里把“核心利益”的提法列为第二点。
Chinese new claims are clearly within her national interest because about 80 percent of China’s oil imports flow through the Strait of Malacca. It should be noted, however, Japan and Korea are similarly dependent on access to those waters, thus have similar strategic interest in this sea lane. Clearly, the South China Sea and the adjacent littoral waters off the coasts of Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore are the most strategically significant sea lanes of this historic century.
中国政府的这些新主张显然符合其国家利益，因为中国大约80%的石油进口都必须经由马六甲海峡。然而，日本和韩国也同样依赖上述海运航线，所以在同一线路上也存在同样的战略利益。很显然，在这个具有特别历史意义的世纪里，南中国海及邻近的印尼、马来西亚和新加坡的近海区域将成为最富战略重要性的海运航线。
Significantly, this is the first time, China claims a “core interest” of sovereignty outside Tibet and Taiwan issues. Chinese has also declared that she would not withstand any foreign interference in her territorial issues in the South China Sea, whose waters long been a subject of contentious transboundary disputes among countries in the region, with overlapping claims of Exclusive Economics Zones. To back up her claim, China already has a port in Yalong Bay on the southern coast of Hainan Island with attack submarines that are able to reach deep water in the South China Sea within twenty minutes.
特别值得注意的是，这是中国政府首次把西藏问题和台湾问题以外的问题列为事关主权的“核心利益”。中方宣布中国政府将不允许任何外国势力干涉其在南中国海的领土问题，而长期以来该地区的国家都主张对此争议海域的“专属经济区”权益。为支持在南中国海的领土主张，中国已经在海南岛南岸的亚龙湾建立了军事基地，潜艇在20分钟内就可从该基地到达南中国海的深水区。
Although, the new claim is clearly within Chinese national interest but this new game-changing claim alarmed leaders of East Asian and ASEAN countries. As expected in October last year as reported by the Strait Times, Minister Mentor of Singapore Lee Kuan Yew — a close friend of China and who personally involved in helping to build and maintain the two world-class industrial parks in Suzhou and Tianjin to support China’s industrialization plan — summed up the ASEAN’s nervousness when he addressed a Washington audience. Noting Chinese navy’s recent new capabilities, he stated bluntly that China’s development of a “far away defense” fleet “cannot just be to deter foreign intervention in conflict between Taiwan and the mainland.” He then made a de facto plea to the U.S. NOT to leave the region and said: “In the end, whatever the challenges, US core interest requires that it remains the superior power on the Pacific. To give up this position would diminish America’s role throughout the world.”
虽然中国政府的新主张符合其国家利益，但是这一声明却为远东地区和东南亚国家联盟的领导人提出了警示。正如人们所料想的，《海峡时报》在去年10月份曾报道，新加坡内阁资政李光耀——李光耀与中国政府关系密切，并亲身参与建设和维护在苏州和天津的两座世界一流的工业园区以支持中国的工业化建设——在华盛顿演讲的时候，曾表示了东南亚国家联盟的担忧。提到近来中国海军实力的提升，他坦言，中国发展的“远海防御”舰队“不可能只是为了吓阻外国势力干涉大陆与台湾的冲突”。之后他事实上请求美国政府不要撤出该地区，并且说道：“最后，不管面临何种挑战，美国的核心利益要求其在太平洋地区保持优势地位。放弃这一优势地位将削弱美国在整个世界范围的影响力。”
In respond to Chinese growing navy forces, the U.S. has reassigned several attack submarines from the Atlantic to the Pacific. Reportedly, Hawaii, a headquarter for the U.S. Pacific Command, PACOM, by next year will house 20 of the US Air Force’s most powerful war-planes F22 Raptors. Furthermore, India reportedly has expressed concerns over China’s “string of pearls” strategy — the alleged establishment of naval ports around the Indian Ocean rim.
为了应对中国日益强大的军事实力，美国已经从大西洋抽调了多艘攻击性潜艇到太平洋。据报道，明年美国将在其夏威夷的太平洋司令部（PACOM）配备20架美国空军攻击力最强的猛禽F22战斗机。此外，据报道，印度也对中国的“珍珠链”战略，即据称在印度洋边缘建立海军港口的行动表示担忧。
For millenia, the arrival of a rising great power that demands respect along with huge appetite for natural resources and a larger space under the sun commensurate with its newly found status has always been marked by great wars. This was true in ancient China itself — when China was the only world for the Chinese — during the Waring States Period, 475-221 BC, which ended with the unification of China under the Qin Dynasty in 221 BC. It was during the rise of Athens among Greek states; in Ancient Egypt; during the consolidation of the Roman Empire; as well as periods during the rise of Spain, France, Britain, Germany, the USSR, Japan, respectively on the world stage; and of course, it has been true of the rise of America in the 20th century.
几千年来，新兴强国的崛起总会寻求与其新地位相匹配的自然资源和更大的空间与尊重，而这个过程中总会引发大规模的战争。古代的中国如此——当时中国人还不知道世界上其他国家的存在——战国时期（公元前475-221年）以秦朝（公元前221年）统一天下结束。雅典在古希腊的崛起也是这样，曾在世界舞台上各领风骚的古埃及、罗马帝国、西班牙、法国、英国、德国、苏联、日本无不如此，20世纪美国的崛起也是同样如此。
Undoubtedly, the rise of China in the 21st century with her 1.3+ billion people is bound to shake the world and will reshape and redefine the global geopolitical landscape.
毫无疑问，在21世纪，拥有超过13亿人口的中国的崛起也必将重塑和重新定义世界地缘政治版图。
Are we doomed and the world war III will be unavoidable in this century?
那么，第三次世界大战是否无法避免地注定会在本世纪爆发呢？
I think the future depends upon what kind of global regime we shall have.
我认为，我们的未来取决于我们的全球治理模式。
What can be done?
我们能做些什么呢？
A great scholar with a divine soul, Zheng Bijian together with his colleagues since the mid-1990s had a divine foresight and hard at work campaigning for China’s new concept of a “peaceful rise” as a new operating strategy of peaceful development for China and to ask the world to accept a fast rising China as a new emerging superpower peacefully. President Hu endorsed this strategy at the Boao Forum in 2004 and officially called it “peaceful development”. The core idea is very simple and beautiful:
从20世纪90年代中期起，中国一位伟大的学者郑必坚及其同事就以卓越的远见和艰苦的努力提出了“和平崛起”的新观念，并将其作为中国和平发展的战略让全世界和平地接受快速崛起的中国，承认其新兴的超级大国地位。在2004年博鳌论坛上，胡主席支持这一战略，并正式称其为“和平发展”。该战略的核心内容非常简洁而美丽：
China will continue to develop peacefully internally and externally be a responsible world power that would help maintain a peaceful global environment; China was against any aggressive and expansionist policy of any nation against any another nation. Simultaneously China reassures Asian powers and the U.S. that her rise in economic and military capability would not be a threat to them but would benefit them.
对内，中国将继续保持和平发展，对外，中国将担负起世界大国的责任，维持和平的世界环境，反对任何国与国之间的进攻和扩张政策。同时，中国政府也向亚洲各国和美国保证，中国经济和军事实力的发展不但不会威胁到它们的利益，反而对它们有益。
In a way, China was promising that she would only export mostly consumer goods such as TVs, computers, shoes and clothing, but not ideology. To further this goal of peace and understanding, by November 2009 China had established 282 Confucius institutes in most capital cities of the world. The mission of the Institutes is to teach Chinese to those who wish to learn the language, and to inform people about Chinese culture. As Vice President Xi Jinping strongly emphasized in a speech in Mexico on February 11, 2009 in response to critics of China:
在某种程度上，中国承诺只出口诸如电视机、电脑、鞋和衣服等消费品，而不会向外输送其意识形态。为了深化理解，实现和平目标，截至2009年11月，中国已经在世界上绝大多数国家的首都建立了282所孔子学院，旨在为愿意学习中文的学生提供学习机会，并传播中国文化。2009年2月11日，中国国家副主席习近平在墨西哥曾坚定地回应针对中国的批评：
“China does not export revolution, hunger, poverty, nor does China cause you any headaches.”
“中国没有出口革命、饥荒、贫穷，中国也没有给你们带来任何麻烦。”
As President Hu has emphasized, a Sino-U.S. Partnership should be the basis for their bilateral relations, as clearly stated as the first item of his 5-point proposal in America earlier this year.
正如胡主席在今年早些时候强调的，中美伙伴关系是双边关系的基础，并在五点建议中列为第一点。
In turn, President Obama has repeatedly called upon China to be the U.S.’s partner and jointly prosper in an interlinked and interdependent world. He said in remarks before his official visit to the People’s Republic in November 2009:
同样，奥巴马总统也一再表示，希望中国能成为美国的合作伙伴，在相互联系、相互依存的世界中共同繁荣。2009年正式访问中国之前，奥巴马总统曾说：
“I believe in a future where China is a strong, prosperous and successful member of the community of nations, a future where our nations are partners, not out of necessity, but also out of opportunity.”
“我所相信的未来是：中国是国际社会强大、繁荣和成功的一员；届时我们的国家将不仅是出于需要而且也是出于寻求机遇成为合作的伙伴。”
More specifically, in a September 24 speech at the Center for a New American Security, the Deputy Secretary of State James Steinberg outlined the Obama’s new operating principle (which supplants the former administration’s calls for China to be a “responsible stakeholder” actor in the world stage as formulated by the former Deputy Secretary of State Zoellick.)
更为具体的主张是体现在9月24日美国副国务卿詹姆斯·斯坦伯格在新美国安全中心发表的演讲。他概括了奥巴马的中美关系新准则，以代替其前任佐利克呼吁中国成为世界舞台上“负责任的利益相关者”的主张。
The concept as I interpret contains an informal contract between the superpowers that U.S. reassures China that the U.S. welcomes China’s peaceful rise while China reassures the U.S. and the world that she rises not only peacefully but also rises together for mutual prosperity.
在我看来，新的主张意味着两大强国之间的一份非正式约定或称之为合同：一方面，美国向中国保证美方欢迎中国的和平崛起，另一方面，中国向美国及世界保证中国不但会以和平的方式崛起，其发展还将促使双方共同繁荣。
In a simple contract structure, there must be an offer, and there must be an acceptance of specific negotiated terms. There must be a meeting of the mind between the parties. In this case, China has offered to the world a promise of a “peaceful rise” and the world as represented by the U.S. as the leader of Pax-Americana has accepted that specific offer. Therefore, there has been a meeting of the mind between the two superpowers.
在一个简单的合同架构中，一方必须出价，而另一方必须根据具体协商的条件表示接受。合同双方必须达成一致。在中美关系架构中，中国向全世界开出的价码是承诺“和平崛起”，而以美国——“美治和平世界”的领导者——为代表的世界各国则接受中国的出价，两个超级强国也因此达成了一致。
To clarify the deal, the Deputy Secretary Steinberg formulated the deal as follows:
为明确这一交易的内容，美国副国务卿作了如下阐述：
“Strategic reassurance rests on the core, if tacit, bargain. Just as we and our allies must make clear that we are prepared to welcome China’s ‘arrival’…as a prosperous and successful power, China must reassure the rest of the world that its development and growing global role will not come at the expense of security and well-being of others… We in the Obama Administration will uphold the United States’ side of this bargain. We are ready to accept a growing role for China on the international stage, and in many areas, we have already embraced it. China too needs to demonstrate the same commitment to doing its part – reassuring the United States, its neighbors in Asia, and the rest of the world that we have nothing to fear from a more influential China, that Beijing shares our vision of a new geopolitics of win-win solutions rather than zero-sum rivalries”.
“战略再保证依赖于在核心内容上彼此心照不宣的讨价还价。正如我们和我们的盟友必须清楚地表明我们已经准备好接受中国的繁荣和成就一样，中国也必须向世界其他国家保证其发展和日益增长的国际影响力不会牺牲或危害到其他国家的安全和利益……奥巴马政府将坚持美国在对话中采取的立场。我们准备接受中国在国际舞台上发挥日益重要的作用。在许多领域，我们已经对此表示欢迎。中国也同样有必要表明，中国将履行自己的义务，使美国、亚洲邻国和全世界相信，我们不必对中国的影响扩大有任何疑虑，北京方面也认同我们有关地缘政治的新构想，即要求以双赢的方式解决问题，不再陷入你死我活的零和博弈。”
Again as I interpret this bargain, this bargain would allow the U.S. to rebuild her teetering economy with its current about (and growing) $14 trillion in debt, an even much larger amount unfunded future liabilities, declining industrial base and broken infrastructures. On the other hand, China needs a peaceful world to renew and reinvigorate her glorious ancient 5000-year-old civilization and to become the North Star for other countries to emulate. Both strategic concepts — the U.S.’s “strategic reassurance” and China’s “peaceful rise or development” are simple, practical, sensible and workable bargain by both sides. The arrangement should logically be formalized in a form of a treaty, however this may not be feasible due to domestic politics, but just a simple a joint-venture (JV) contract in writing could be sufficient. At the same time, NOT being naive, clearly both China and the U.S. have to build up their defenses, such that clear to both beyond a reasonable doubt that a war between them is not a winable venture, and it is just too costly for either side to contemplate and to prevent either side to miscalculate that either side could possibly win in such a war. On the other hand, now more than ever both leaders must exercise restraint in a weapon built-up that could cause a sense of unbearable insecurity to the other and destabilize the balance.
在我看来，这一交易的实现将为美国重振其摇摇欲坠的经济提供机会——美国现在背负着大约14万亿美元的债务，以及数目更庞大的未来债务，工业基础逐渐老化，基础设施建设七零八落。中国也需要和平的世界环境以重振其5000年灿烂的文明，成为其他国家竞相效仿的“北极星”。美国的“战略再保证”和中国的“和平崛起/发展”的战略概念对双方而言都是简单、实用、可行、有效的。这一框架安排按理应形成协议，但是，鉴于双方的国内政治环境，签署协议不一定行得通，不过就算只是简单“联营约定”也足够了。与此同时，我们也不必天真，中美双方显然都必须加强其国防力量，使双方在合理怀疑的基础上明白，若爆发战争，任何一方都无法取得胜利。任何一方意图发动战争或误以为能赢得战争都将付出巨大的代价。现在，两国领导人比任何时候都更应该克制，避免研发那些会使对方感到受威胁从而破坏平衡的武器。
I think we can rely upon the Sino-America JV partnership, along with the so-called the “strategic reassurance”, using Steinberg’s catchphrase, or/and Zheng Bijian’s “peaceful rise” to safeguard the global commons for all mankind to prosper and live peacefully in a global harmonious society. The most important feature of this JV is for both superpowers JUST getting along in this world.
我认为，我们可以依托中美联营伙伴关系，基于斯坦伯格所谓的“战略再保证”和/或郑必坚所说的“和平崛起”，确保全人类在和谐的世界中实现共同繁荣。这一“中美联营”框架最重要的特点就是要确保两大超级强国能够和平共处。
On China’s part, under this JV, she is the junior partner now in the Pax-Americana, as the leader in waiting and training for ten or more years, learning the ropes so to speak of world leadership before taking the lead role as its managing partner; whereas the U.S. is in training for ten years or more, learning the ropes of how to deal with the “junior partner” now as well as how to behave as a junior partner later on under the Pax-Sino world and how to prepare domestic politics which is accustomed with political campaign rhetoric of the U.S. as the greatest power on earth and to accept nothing else but number one.
就中国而言，在这个中美联营框架下，它是“美治太平世界”中的新手伙伴，在未来十年或更长时间内作为侯任的和训练中的领导者，在确立伙伴关系中的领导地位之前，得到历练并获得领导经验；而美国，在十年或更长时间的训练中，将学会如何与新手伙伴共处以及如何在未来的“华治太平世界”中作为新手伙伴生存，并调整其习惯于“美国天下第一”的国内政治环境。
Why must the world accept this JV arrangement?
为什么世界各国必须接受这一中美联营框架安排？
The key issue is for the world whether the future under Pax-Sino, which I expect after 2020, the world regime shall be either under a power politics of Sunzi’s Art of War kind of supremacy strategy — which in its core nature is a zero-sum power game — that would gather all dark armed clandestine forces of the world, employ secret agents everywhere with missions to gather all information about friends and foes alike, to spread false information to confuse friends and enemies alike, to seek, identify, torture and eliminate enemies and potential enemies, to assassinate foreign leaders and even more evil acts. Alternatively, in contrast, by a rules-based transparent ‘traffic light’ concept of international law regime, which its core nature is a win-win basis, because the rule of law concept prescribes all states either small or large equal before the global rules-based regime and would protect their independent and sovereignty equally. This system definitely will better protect small nation-states like Singapore or Dubai of the world. Without this rules-based regime, just like our sun rises in the east and sets in the west, small nation-states would disappear and be engulfed in a pac-man like game by a bigger neighboring state. This is the highest stake that all of us citizens of the world MUST be concerned about. We don’t want to be just a pawn of great powers in their power-grabbing politics! I think the common interests of all mankind shall prevail and I believe a rules-based international regime with Sino-American partnerships with China as a full partner NOW and as an impending future managing partner by default, NOT by design, in this partnership, China must involve fully in re-shaping and re-building this new architecture of a new brave and harmonious global society, which is consistent with President Hu and the Party’s desire to build a peaceful, prosperous, harmonious society domestically as well as internationally. China has the right as a new economic superpower and an impending a military superpower to reshape the international regime not only according to her core-interests but also the core-interests of other states based on a win-win formula especially by default, NOT by design, she will be called upon in the near future from time to time to maintain and impose law and order on this Earth that we love and care so much and the one and only we have — a vulnerable fragile Gaia ecosystem, a tiny blue dot among the shining stars in the sky in our fantastically amazing universe.
对于世界来说，关键问题是，我所预料的2020年后的“华治太平世界”是否会成为《孙子兵法》所体现的霸权战略的强权政治。其核心是零和的权力博弈，集中世界上所有黑暗的、秘密的武装力量，在世界各地建立秘密机构，获取朋友和敌人的情报，散播朋友和敌人的谣言，发现、折磨、消灭敌人和潜在敌人，暗杀外国政要，或采取性质更为恶劣的行为。相反的选择是，建立有章可循的、透明的交通灯式的国际法律秩序，其核心是双赢的局面，因为法治将使各国不论大小在全球体制中都处于平等的地位，其独立和主权也将受到一视同仁的保护。这一体系必将更好地保护新加坡或迪拜等小国的利益。如果世界的管理不能像太阳从东方升起从西方落下那样有章可循，那么，小国将如“吃豆人”游戏般被强大的邻国所吞没，从而逐渐消失。世界上的每个公民都应考虑到这一最高风险。我们不希望成为大国强权政治游戏的牺牲品！我认为人类的共同利益将战胜一切。我相信在依托中美伙伴关系的法治的国际秩序中，中国当前是伙伴关系的全面参与者，马上就将自动而非精心设计地成为伙伴关系的主导者——中国必须全面参与重建一个全新的、勇敢的、和谐的全球社会，这也符合胡主席以及共产党建设和平繁荣的和谐社会与和谐世界的目标。作为一个新兴的经济大国以及潜在的军事大国，中国有权自动而非精心设计地根据自己的核心利益以及在双赢基础上的其他国家的核心利益重塑国际秩序，尤其是在不久的将来，其他国家将时不时地需要中国站出来维持地球上的秩序和法律——我们只有这一个地球，我们对其的关心和爱护难以言表，地球的生态系统是如此脆弱，它只是我们不可思议的宇宙中闪烁的一个小蓝点。
By accepting China as a full partner NOW and a future managing partner who fully engages in re-shaping, re-building and managing the world affairs is a realistic power-politicking as long as at the same time this power is constraint by a traffic light type rule of law global regime that all members must subscribe to WITHOUT exception for the common good, if not each one of us should be ready to be ruled by bloody red tooth and claw, hence we are all doomed living in fear, brutal, dangerous and cruel fate in our bloody red dot, shedding our blood and that of our children and grand children….
我们需要接受中国现在成为全面合作伙伴，并接受其未来以实际主导者角色全面参与重塑、重建和管理世界事务。只要这种权力同时受到交通灯式的全球法制秩序的约束，对中国角色的接受就是现实的政治选择。为了全世界的共同利益，各国无一例外都必须遵守这一全球秩序，否则，我们每个人都将生活在暴力与血腥当中，生活在恐惧、残暴、危险、残酷的世界中，以我们的血、我们子子孙孙的血为代价……
To sum up, echoing the spirit of Shanghai Expo and its slogan “Better city, Better life”: let us ASK and DEMAND all nations to “Better cooperate, Better co-develop, Better co-rise, Better life” in a harmonious but diversified global society that promises to all mankind a better peaceful, prosperous, free and quiet life.
总而言之，为了呼应上海世博会的精神及其“城市，让生活更美好”的口号，让我们呼吁并要求各国“更好地合作、更好地共同发展、更好地共同崛起，更好地共同生活”，为了在和谐多元的全球社会中为全人类创造更加美好的和平、繁荣、自由、安宁的生活。
Thank you very much for listening.
谢谢。
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