{"id":129,"date":"2010-05-29T23:59:01","date_gmt":"2010-05-29T15:59:01","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.leokoguanfoundation.org\/?p=129"},"modified":"2026-05-15T11:41:39","modified_gmt":"2026-05-15T03:41:39","slug":"2010-05a-joint-venture-between-sino-america-for-better-co-opeartion-better-co-development-better-co-rising-and-better-life-to-all-mankind","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.leokoguanfoundation.org\/?p=129","title":{"rendered":"A Joint-Venture between Sino-America for Better Co-opeartion, Better Co-development, Better Co-rising and Better Life to All Mankind"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>A Joint-Venture between Sino-America for<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>better cooperation, better co-development, better co-rising and better life to all mankind.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>A\u00a0keynote\u00a0Speech\u00a0at\u00a0Shanghai\u00a0Forum\u00a0on\u00a0May\u00a029,\u00a02010<\/p>\n<p>by Prof. Leo KoGuan<\/p>\n<p>This is my really great honor to give a key note address to such distinguished and knowledgeable audience.<\/p>\n<p>\u80fd\u591f\u5728\u6b64\u5411\u5404\u4f4d\u8d35\u5bbe\u548c\u5b66\u8005\u53d1\u8868\u4e3b\u9898\u6f14\u8bb2\uff0c\u6211\u611f\u5230\u8363\u5e78\u4e4b\u81f3\u3002<\/p>\n<p>On April 12 this year, while attending the Nuclear Security Summit in Washington, President Hu Jintao laid down a five-point proposal for improving China-US relations:<\/p>\n<p>\u4eca\u5e744\u670812\u65e5\uff0c\u80e1\u9526\u6d9b\u4e3b\u5e2d\u5728\u534e\u76db\u987f\u51fa\u5e2d\u6838\u5b89\u5168\u5cf0\u4f1a\u671f\u95f4\u5c31\u53d1\u5c55\u4e2d\u7f8e\u5173\u7cfb\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u4e94\u70b9\u5efa\u8bae\uff1a<\/p>\n<ol>\n<li>Keep track of bilateral ties and establish a PARTNERSHIP to jointly deal with mutual common problems;<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p>\u7b2c\u4e00\uff0c\u59cb\u7ec8\u575a\u6301\u4e2d\u7f8e\u5173\u7cfb\u7684\u6b63\u786e\u65b9\u5411\uff0c\u5efa\u7acb\u4f19\u4f34\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u5171\u540c\u5e94\u5bf9\u53cc\u65b9\u5173\u5fc3\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u3002<\/p>\n<ol start=\"2\">\n<li>Both sides must respect each other&#8217;s CORE INTERESTS and major concerns to promote a healthy and stable bilateral ties. China&#8217;s core interests, and China&#8217;s sovereignty and territorial integrity are the Taiwan and Tibet issues, which must be respected and handled with caution;<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p>\u7b2c\u4e8c\uff0c\u5f7c\u6b64\u5c0a\u91cd\u6838\u5fc3\u5229\u76ca\u548c\u91cd\u5927\u5173\u5207\uff0c\u63a8\u52a8\u53cc\u8fb9\u5173\u7cfb\u5065\u5eb7\u3001\u7a33\u5b9a\u53d1\u5c55\u3002\u53f0\u6e7e\u95ee\u9898\u3001\u897f\u85cf\u95ee\u9898\u7b49\u4e8b\u5173\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u5229\u76ca\u548c\u4e2d\u56fd\u4e3b\u6743\u53ca\u9886\u571f\u5b8c\u6574\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u5fc5\u987b\u5f97\u5230\u5c0a\u91cd\u5e76\u8c28\u614e\u5904\u7406\u3002<\/p>\n<ol start=\"3\">\n<li>Multilevel Sino-U.S. relationships from presidential to lower levels.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p>\u7b2c\u4e09\uff0c\u4fdd\u6301\u9ad8\u5c42\u548c\u5404\u7ea7\u522b\u7684\u4ea4\u5f80\u3002<\/p>\n<ol start=\"4\">\n<li>Strengthen joint cooperation and coordination in economics and trade, counter-terrorism, energy, environment, and law enforcement.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p>\u7b2c\u56db\uff0c\u6df1\u5316\u53cc\u65b9\u5728\u7ecf\u8d38\u3001\u53cd\u6050\u3001\u80fd\u6e90\u3001\u73af\u5883\u548c\u6267\u6cd5\u7b49\u9886\u57df\u7684\u5408\u4f5c\u4e0e\u534f\u8c03\u3002<\/p>\n<ol start=\"5\">\n<li>Strengthen communication and coordination on major international and regional issues especially within the framework of the G20.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p>\u7b2c\u4e94\uff0c\u52a0\u5f3a\u53cc\u65b9\u5728\u91cd\u5927\u56fd\u9645\u548c\u5730\u533a\u95ee\u9898\u4e0a\u7684\u6c9f\u901a\u548c\u534f\u8c03\uff0c\u7279\u522b\u662f\u5728G20\u6846\u67b6\u5185\u7684\u6c9f\u901a\u4e0e\u534f\u8c03\u3002<\/p>\n<p>The stage:<\/p>\n<p>This April, the Chinese military announced that it will seek to project her naval power including in the PLA arsenals are the up and coming Chinese aircraft carrier battle group, a newly developed ballistic missiles that can sink any aircraft carrier and ICBM satellite killer. These new capabilities and the like enable China to reach beyond the Chinese territorial waters to the Pacific shipping lanes that connect China to its oil ports in the Middle East, an area where the US Navy has until now been the sole dominant force. China wants her warships to escort commercial vessels from as far as the Persian Gulf to the Strait of Malacca in Southeast Asia to protect Chinese Interests. In March, two Chinese warships made their first appearance in the Middle East at Abu Dhabi. Last April, Chinese officials told the Obama administration that the South China Sea was now part of the &#8220;core interests&#8221; of Chinese sovereignty. Note that this doctrine of &#8220;core interest&#8221; is listed as the second of China&#8217;s five-point proposal.<\/p>\n<p>\u73b0\u72b6\u5206\u6790\uff1a<\/p>\n<p>\u4eca\u5e744\u6708\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u519b\u65b9\u5ba3\u5e03\u5c06\u63d0\u5347\u5176\u6d77\u519b\u5b9e\u529b\uff0c\u6700\u65b0\u7684\u6b66\u5668\u88c5\u5907\u5305\u62ec\u5373\u5c06\u7814\u53d1\u5236\u9020\u7684\u822a\u7a7a\u6bcd\u8230\u6218\u6597\u7fa4\uff0c\u8db3\u4ee5\u51fb\u6c89\u822a\u7a7a\u6bcd\u8230\u7684\u65b0\u578b\u5f39\u9053\u5bfc\u5f39\u4ee5\u53ca\u6d32\u9645\u5f39\u9053\u53cd\u536b\u661f\u6b66\u5668\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u65b0\u519b\u529b\u5c06\u4f7f\u4e2d\u56fd\u6d77\u519b\u7684\u63a7\u5236\u8303\u56f4\u4ece\u5176\u8fd1\u6d77\u62d3\u5c55\u5230\u8fde\u63a5\u4e2d\u4e1c\u6cb9\u7530\u7684\u592a\u5e73\u6d0b\u822a\u7ebf\uff0c\u800c\u5230\u76ee\u524d\u4e3a\u6b62\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u5730\u533a\u8fd8\u662f<a href=\"http:\/\/2014.sina.com.cn\/teams\/usa.html\">\u7f8e\u56fd<\/a>\u6d77\u519b\u72ec\u9738\u5929\u4e0b\u3002\u4e3a\u4e86\u4fdd\u62a4\u56fd\u5bb6\u5229\u76ca\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u653f\u5e9c\u5e0c\u671b\u6d77\u519b\u80fd\u4ece\u6ce2\u65af\u6e7e\u5230\u5357\u4e9a\u7684\u9a6c\u516d\u7532\u6d77\u5ce1\u4e3a\u5546\u8239\u4e00\u8def\u62a4\u822a\u3002\u4eca\u5e743\u6708\uff0c\u4e24\u8258\u4e2d\u56fd\u6218\u8230\u9996\u6b21\u5728\u4e2d\u4e1c\u7684\u963f\u5e03\u624e\u6bd4\u4eae\u76f8\u3002\u53bb\u5e744\u6708\uff0c\u4e2d\u65b9\u5b98\u5458\u544a\u77e5\u5965\u5df4\u9a6c\u653f\u5e9c\u5357\u4e2d\u56fd\u6d77\u73b0\u5728\u5df2\u7ecf\u6210\u4e3a\u4e8b\u5173\u4e2d\u56fd\u4e3b\u6743\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u201c\u6838\u5fc3\u5229\u76ca\u201d\u3002\u8bf7\u6ce8\u610f\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u653f\u5e9c\u5728\u201c\u4e94\u70b9\u5efa\u8bae\u201d\u91cc\u628a\u201c\u6838\u5fc3\u5229\u76ca\u201d\u7684\u63d0\u6cd5\u5217\u4e3a\u7b2c\u4e8c\u70b9\u3002<\/p>\n<p>Chinese new claims are clearly within her national interest because about 80 percent of China&#8217;s oil imports flow through the Strait of Malacca. It should be noted, however, Japan and Korea are similarly dependent on access to those waters, thus have similar strategic interest in this sea lane. Clearly, the South China Sea and the adjacent littoral waters off the coasts of Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore are the most strategically significant sea lanes of this historic century.<\/p>\n<p>\u4e2d\u56fd\u653f\u5e9c\u7684\u8fd9\u4e9b\u65b0\u4e3b\u5f20\u663e\u7136\u7b26\u5408\u5176\u56fd\u5bb6\u5229\u76ca\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u4e2d\u56fd\u5927\u7ea680%\u7684\u77f3\u6cb9\u8fdb\u53e3\u90fd\u5fc5\u987b\u7ecf\u7531\u9a6c\u516d\u7532\u6d77\u5ce1\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c<a href=\"http:\/\/2014.sina.com.cn\/teams\/japan.html\">\u65e5\u672c<\/a>\u548c<a href=\"http:\/\/2014.sina.com.cn\/teams\/korearepublic.html\">\u97e9\u56fd<\/a>\u4e5f\u540c\u6837\u4f9d\u8d56\u4e0a\u8ff0\u6d77\u8fd0\u822a\u7ebf\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u5728\u540c\u4e00\u7ebf\u8def\u4e0a\u4e5f\u5b58\u5728\u540c\u6837\u7684\u6218\u7565\u5229\u76ca\u3002\u5f88\u663e\u7136\uff0c\u5728\u8fd9\u4e2a\u5177\u6709\u7279\u522b\u5386\u53f2\u610f\u4e49\u7684\u4e16\u7eaa\u91cc\uff0c\u5357\u4e2d\u56fd\u6d77\u53ca\u90bb\u8fd1\u7684\u5370\u5c3c\u3001\u9a6c\u6765\u897f\u4e9a\u548c\u65b0\u52a0\u5761\u7684\u8fd1\u6d77\u533a\u57df\u5c06\u6210\u4e3a\u6700\u5bcc\u6218\u7565\u91cd\u8981\u6027\u7684\u6d77\u8fd0\u822a\u7ebf\u3002<\/p>\n<p>Significantly, this is the first time, China claims a &#8220;core interest&#8221; of sovereignty outside Tibet and Taiwan issues. Chinese has also declared that\u00a0\u00a0she would not withstand any foreign interference in her territorial issues in the South China Sea, whose waters long been a subject of contentious transboundary disputes among countries in the region, with overlapping claims of Exclusive Economics Zones. To back up her claim, China already has a port in Yalong Bay on the southern coast of Hainan Island with attack submarines that are able to reach deep water in the South China Sea within twenty minutes.<\/p>\n<p>\u7279\u522b\u503c\u5f97\u6ce8\u610f\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u4e2d\u56fd\u653f\u5e9c\u9996\u6b21\u628a\u897f\u85cf\u95ee\u9898\u548c\u53f0\u6e7e\u95ee\u9898\u4ee5\u5916\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u5217\u4e3a\u4e8b\u5173\u4e3b\u6743\u7684\u201c\u6838\u5fc3\u5229\u76ca\u201d\u3002\u4e2d\u65b9\u5ba3\u5e03\u4e2d\u56fd\u653f\u5e9c\u5c06\u4e0d\u5141\u8bb8\u4efb\u4f55\u5916\u56fd\u52bf\u529b\u5e72\u6d89\u5176\u5728\u5357\u4e2d\u56fd\u6d77\u7684\u9886\u571f\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u800c\u957f\u671f\u4ee5\u6765\u8be5\u5730\u533a\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\u90fd\u4e3b\u5f20\u5bf9\u6b64\u4e89\u8bae\u6d77\u57df\u7684\u201c\u4e13\u5c5e\u7ecf\u6d4e\u533a\u201d\u6743\u76ca\u3002\u4e3a\u652f\u6301\u5728\u5357\u4e2d\u56fd\u6d77\u7684\u9886\u571f\u4e3b\u5f20\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u5df2\u7ecf\u5728\u6d77\u5357\u5c9b\u5357\u5cb8\u7684\u4e9a\u9f99\u6e7e\u5efa\u7acb\u4e86\u519b\u4e8b\u57fa\u5730\uff0c\u6f5c\u8247\u572820\u5206\u949f\u5185\u5c31\u53ef\u4ece\u8be5\u57fa\u5730\u5230\u8fbe\u5357\u4e2d\u56fd\u6d77\u7684\u6df1\u6c34\u533a\u3002<\/p>\n<p>Although, the new claim is clearly within Chinese national interest but this new game-changing claim alarmed leaders of East Asian and ASEAN countries.\u00a0\u00a0As expected in October last year as reported by the Strait Times, Minister Mentor of Singapore Lee Kuan Yew &#8212; a close friend of China and who personally involved in helping to build and maintain the two world-class industrial parks in Suzhou and Tianjin to support China&#8217;s industrialization plan &#8212; summed up the ASEAN&#8217;s nervousness when he addressed a Washington audience. Noting Chinese navy&#8217;s recent new capabilities, he stated bluntly that China&#8217;s development of a &#8220;far away defense&#8221; fleet &#8220;cannot just be to deter foreign intervention in conflict between Taiwan and the mainland.&#8221; He then made a de facto plea to the U.S. NOT to leave the region and said: &#8220;In the end, whatever the challenges, US core interest requires that it remains the superior power on the Pacific. To give up this position would diminish America&#8217;s role throughout the world.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>\u867d\u7136\u4e2d\u56fd\u653f\u5e9c\u7684\u65b0\u4e3b\u5f20\u7b26\u5408\u5176\u56fd\u5bb6\u5229\u76ca\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u8fd9\u4e00\u58f0\u660e\u5374\u4e3a\u8fdc\u4e1c\u5730\u533a\u548c\u4e1c\u5357\u4e9a\u56fd\u5bb6\u8054\u76df\u7684\u9886\u5bfc\u4eba\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u8b66\u793a\u3002\u6b63\u5982\u4eba\u4eec\u6240\u6599\u60f3\u7684\uff0c\u300a\u6d77\u5ce1\u65f6\u62a5\u300b\u5728\u53bb\u5e7410\u6708\u4efd\u66fe\u62a5\u9053\uff0c\u65b0\u52a0\u5761\u5185\u9601\u8d44\u653f\u674e\u5149\u8000\u2014\u2014\u674e\u5149\u8000\u4e0e\u4e2d\u56fd\u653f\u5e9c\u5173\u7cfb\u5bc6\u5207\uff0c\u5e76\u4eb2\u8eab\u53c2\u4e0e\u5efa\u8bbe\u548c\u7ef4\u62a4\u5728\u82cf\u5dde\u548c\u5929\u6d25\u7684\u4e24\u5ea7\u4e16\u754c\u4e00\u6d41\u7684\u5de5\u4e1a\u56ed\u533a\u4ee5\u652f\u6301\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u5de5\u4e1a\u5316\u5efa\u8bbe\u2014\u2014\u5728\u534e\u76db\u987f\u6f14\u8bb2\u7684\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u66fe\u8868\u793a\u4e86\u4e1c\u5357\u4e9a\u56fd\u5bb6\u8054\u76df\u7684\u62c5\u5fe7\u3002\u63d0\u5230\u8fd1\u6765\u4e2d\u56fd\u6d77\u519b\u5b9e\u529b\u7684\u63d0\u5347\uff0c\u4ed6\u5766\u8a00\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u53d1\u5c55\u7684\u201c\u8fdc\u6d77\u9632\u5fa1\u201d\u8230\u961f\u201c\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u53ea\u662f\u4e3a\u4e86\u5413\u963b\u5916\u56fd\u52bf\u529b\u5e72\u6d89\u5927\u9646\u4e0e\u53f0\u6e7e\u7684\u51b2\u7a81\u201d\u3002\u4e4b\u540e\u4ed6\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\u8bf7\u6c42\u7f8e\u56fd\u653f\u5e9c\u4e0d\u8981\u64a4\u51fa\u8be5\u5730\u533a\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u8bf4\u9053\uff1a\u201c\u6700\u540e\uff0c\u4e0d\u7ba1\u9762\u4e34\u4f55\u79cd\u6311\u6218\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u5229\u76ca\u8981\u6c42\u5176\u5728\u592a\u5e73\u6d0b\u5730\u533a\u4fdd\u6301\u4f18\u52bf\u5730\u4f4d\u3002\u653e\u5f03\u8fd9\u4e00\u4f18\u52bf\u5730\u4f4d\u5c06\u524a\u5f31\u7f8e\u56fd\u5728\u6574\u4e2a\u4e16\u754c\u8303\u56f4\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u529b\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n<p>In respond to Chinese growing navy forces, the U.S. has reassigned several attack submarines from the Atlantic to the Pacific. Reportedly, Hawaii, a headquarter for the U.S. Pacific Command, PACOM, by next year will house 20 of the US Air Force&#8217;s most powerful war-planes F22 Raptors. Furthermore, India reportedly has expressed concerns over China&#8217;s &#8220;string of pearls&#8221; strategy &#8212; the alleged establishment of naval ports around the Indian Ocean rim.<\/p>\n<p>\u4e3a\u4e86\u5e94\u5bf9\u4e2d\u56fd\u65e5\u76ca\u5f3a\u5927\u7684\u519b\u4e8b\u5b9e\u529b\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u5df2\u7ecf\u4ece\u5927\u897f\u6d0b\u62bd\u8c03\u4e86\u591a\u8258\u653b\u51fb\u6027\u6f5c\u8247\u5230\u592a\u5e73\u6d0b\u3002\u636e\u62a5\u9053\uff0c\u660e\u5e74\u7f8e\u56fd\u5c06\u5728\u5176\u590f\u5a01\u5937\u7684\u592a\u5e73\u6d0b\u53f8\u4ee4\u90e8\uff08PACOM\uff09\u914d\u590720\u67b6\u7f8e\u56fd\u7a7a\u519b\u653b\u51fb\u529b\u6700\u5f3a\u7684\u731b\u79bdF22\u6218\u6597\u673a\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u636e\u62a5\u9053\uff0c\u5370\u5ea6\u4e5f\u5bf9\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u201c\u73cd\u73e0\u94fe\u201d\u6218\u7565\uff0c\u5373\u636e\u79f0\u5728\u5370\u5ea6\u6d0b\u8fb9\u7f18\u5efa\u7acb\u6d77\u519b\u6e2f\u53e3\u7684\u884c\u52a8\u8868\u793a\u62c5\u5fe7\u3002<\/p>\n<p>For millenia, the arrival of a rising great power that demands respect along with huge appetite for natural resources and a larger space under the sun commensurate with its newly found status has always been marked by great wars. This was true in ancient China itself &#8212; when China was the only world for the Chinese &#8212; during the Waring States Period, 475-221 BC, which ended with the unification of China under the Qin Dynasty in 221 BC. It was during the rise of Athens among Greek states; in Ancient Egypt; during the consolidation of the Roman Empire; as well as periods during the rise of Spain, France, Britain, Germany, the USSR, Japan, respectively on the world stage; and of course, it has been true of the rise of America in the 20th century.<\/p>\n<p>\u51e0\u5343\u5e74\u6765\uff0c\u65b0\u5174\u5f3a\u56fd\u7684\u5d1b\u8d77\u603b\u4f1a\u5bfb\u6c42\u4e0e\u5176\u65b0\u5730\u4f4d\u76f8\u5339\u914d\u7684\u81ea\u7136\u8d44\u6e90\u548c\u66f4\u5927\u7684\u7a7a\u95f4\u4e0e\u5c0a\u91cd\uff0c\u800c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e2d\u603b\u4f1a\u5f15\u53d1\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u7684\u6218\u4e89\u3002\u53e4\u4ee3\u7684\u4e2d\u56fd\u5982\u6b64\u2014\u2014\u5f53\u65f6\u4e2d\u56fd\u4eba\u8fd8\u4e0d\u77e5\u9053\u4e16\u754c\u4e0a\u5176\u4ed6\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u5b58\u5728\u2014\u2014\u6218\u56fd\u65f6\u671f\uff08\u516c\u5143\u524d475-221\u5e74\uff09\u4ee5\u79e6\u671d\uff08\u516c\u5143\u524d221\u5e74\uff09\u7edf\u4e00\u5929\u4e0b\u7ed3\u675f\u3002\u96c5\u5178\u5728\u53e4<a href=\"http:\/\/2014.sina.com.cn\/teams\/greece.html\">\u5e0c\u814a<\/a>\u7684\u5d1b\u8d77\u4e5f\u662f\u8fd9\u6837\uff0c\u66fe\u5728\u4e16\u754c\u821e\u53f0\u4e0a\u5404\u9886\u98ce\u9a9a\u7684\u53e4\u57c3\u53ca\u3001\u7f57\u9a6c\u5e1d\u56fd\u3001<a href=\"http:\/\/2014.sina.com.cn\/teams\/spain.html\">\u897f\u73ed\u7259<\/a>\u3001<a href=\"http:\/\/2014.sina.com.cn\/teams\/france.html\">\u6cd5\u56fd<\/a>\u3001\u82f1\u56fd\u3001<a href=\"http:\/\/2014.sina.com.cn\/teams\/germany.html\">\u5fb7\u56fd<\/a>\u3001\u82cf\u8054\u3001\u65e5\u672c\u65e0\u4e0d\u5982\u6b64\uff0c20\u4e16\u7eaa\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u5d1b\u8d77\u4e5f\u662f\u540c\u6837\u5982\u6b64\u3002<\/p>\n<p>Undoubtedly, the rise of China in the 21st century with her 1.3+ billion people is bound to shake the world and will reshape and redefine the global geopolitical landscape.<\/p>\n<p>\u6beb\u65e0\u7591\u95ee\uff0c\u572821\u4e16\u7eaa\uff0c\u62e5\u6709\u8d85\u8fc713\u4ebf\u4eba\u53e3\u7684\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u5d1b\u8d77\u4e5f\u5fc5\u5c06\u91cd\u5851\u548c\u91cd\u65b0\u5b9a\u4e49\u4e16\u754c\u5730\u7f18\u653f\u6cbb\u7248\u56fe\u3002<\/p>\n<p>Are we doomed and the world war III will be unavoidable in this century?<\/p>\n<p>\u90a3\u4e48\uff0c\u7b2c\u4e09\u6b21\u4e16\u754c\u5927\u6218\u662f\u5426\u65e0\u6cd5\u907f\u514d\u5730\u6ce8\u5b9a\u4f1a\u5728\u672c\u4e16\u7eaa\u7206\u53d1\u5462\uff1f<\/p>\n<p>I think the future depends upon what kind of global regime we shall have.<\/p>\n<p>\u6211\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u672a\u6765\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u5168\u7403\u6cbb\u7406\u6a21\u5f0f\u3002<\/p>\n<p>What can be done?<\/p>\n<p>\u6211\u4eec\u80fd\u505a\u4e9b\u4ec0\u4e48\u5462\uff1f<\/p>\n<p>A great scholar with a divine soul, Zheng Bijian together with his colleagues since\u00a0\u00a0the mid-1990s had a divine foresight and hard at work campaigning for China&#8217;s new concept of a &#8220;peaceful rise&#8221; as a new operating strategy of peaceful development for China and to ask the world to accept a fast rising China as a new\u00a0\u00a0emerging superpower peacefully. President Hu endorsed this strategy at the Boao Forum in 2004 and officially called it &#8220;peaceful development&#8221;. The core idea is very simple and beautiful:<\/p>\n<p>\u4ece20\u4e16\u7eaa90\u5e74\u4ee3\u4e2d\u671f\u8d77\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u4e00\u4f4d\u4f1f\u5927\u7684\u5b66\u8005\u90d1\u5fc5\u575a\u53ca\u5176\u540c\u4e8b\u5c31\u4ee5\u5353\u8d8a\u7684\u8fdc\u89c1\u548c\u8270\u82e6\u7684\u52aa\u529b\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u201c\u548c\u5e73\u5d1b\u8d77\u201d\u7684\u65b0\u89c2\u5ff5\uff0c\u5e76\u5c06\u5176\u4f5c\u4e3a\u4e2d\u56fd\u548c\u5e73\u53d1\u5c55\u7684\u6218\u7565\u8ba9\u5168\u4e16\u754c\u548c\u5e73\u5730\u63a5\u53d7\u5feb\u901f\u5d1b\u8d77\u7684\u4e2d\u56fd\uff0c\u627f\u8ba4\u5176\u65b0\u5174\u7684\u8d85\u7ea7\u5927\u56fd\u5730\u4f4d\u3002\u57282004\u5e74\u535a\u9ccc\u8bba\u575b\u4e0a\uff0c\u80e1\u4e3b\u5e2d\u652f\u6301\u8fd9\u4e00\u6218\u7565\uff0c\u5e76\u6b63\u5f0f\u79f0\u5176\u4e3a\u201c\u548c\u5e73\u53d1\u5c55\u201d\u3002\u8be5\u6218\u7565\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u5185\u5bb9\u975e\u5e38\u7b80\u6d01\u800c\u7f8e\u4e3d\uff1a<\/p>\n<p>China will continue to develop peacefully internally and externally be a responsible world power that would help maintain a peaceful global environment; China was against any aggressive and expansionist policy of any nation against any another nation. Simultaneously China reassures Asian powers and the U.S. that her rise in economic and military capability would not be a threat to them but would benefit them.<\/p>\n<p>\u5bf9\u5185\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u5c06\u7ee7\u7eed\u4fdd\u6301\u548c\u5e73\u53d1\u5c55\uff0c\u5bf9\u5916\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u5c06\u62c5\u8d1f\u8d77\u4e16\u754c\u5927\u56fd\u7684\u8d23\u4efb\uff0c\u7ef4\u6301\u548c\u5e73\u7684\u4e16\u754c\u73af\u5883\uff0c\u53cd\u5bf9\u4efb\u4f55\u56fd\u4e0e\u56fd\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u8fdb\u653b\u548c\u6269\u5f20\u653f\u7b56\u3002\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u653f\u5e9c\u4e5f\u5411\u4e9a\u6d32\u5404\u56fd\u548c\u7f8e\u56fd\u4fdd\u8bc1\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u548c\u519b\u4e8b\u5b9e\u529b\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\u4e0d\u4f46\u4e0d\u4f1a\u5a01\u80c1\u5230\u5b83\u4eec\u7684\u5229\u76ca\uff0c\u53cd\u800c\u5bf9\u5b83\u4eec\u6709\u76ca\u3002<\/p>\n<p>In a way, China was promising that she would only export mostly consumer goods such as TVs, computers, shoes and clothing, but not ideology. To further this goal of peace and understanding, by November 2009 China had established 282 Confucius institutes in most capital cities of the world. The mission of the Institutes is to teach Chinese to those who wish to learn the language, and to inform people about Chinese culture. As Vice President Xi Jinping strongly emphasized in a speech in Mexico on February 11, 2009 in response to critics of China:<\/p>\n<p>\u5728\u67d0\u79cd\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u627f\u8bfa\u53ea\u51fa\u53e3\u8bf8\u5982\u7535\u89c6\u673a\u3001\u7535\u8111\u3001\u978b\u548c\u8863\u670d\u7b49\u6d88\u8d39\u54c1\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u4f1a\u5411\u5916\u8f93\u9001\u5176\u610f\u8bc6\u5f62\u6001\u3002\u4e3a\u4e86\u6df1\u5316\u7406\u89e3\uff0c\u5b9e\u73b0\u548c\u5e73\u76ee\u6807\uff0c\u622a\u81f32009\u5e7411\u6708\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u5df2\u7ecf\u5728\u4e16\u754c\u4e0a\u7edd\u5927\u591a\u6570\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u9996\u90fd\u5efa\u7acb\u4e86282\u6240\u5b54\u5b50\u5b66\u9662\uff0c\u65e8\u5728\u4e3a\u613f\u610f\u5b66\u4e60\u4e2d\u6587\u7684\u5b66\u751f\u63d0\u4f9b\u5b66\u4e60\u673a\u4f1a\uff0c\u5e76\u4f20\u64ad\u4e2d\u56fd\u6587\u5316\u30022009\u5e742\u670811\u65e5\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u56fd\u5bb6\u526f\u4e3b\u5e2d\u4e60\u8fd1\u5e73\u5728<a href=\"http:\/\/2014.sina.com.cn\/teams\/mexico.html\">\u58a8\u897f\u54e5<\/a>\u66fe\u575a\u5b9a\u5730\u56de\u5e94\u9488\u5bf9\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u6279\u8bc4\uff1a<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;China does not export revolution, hunger, poverty, nor does China cause you any headaches.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>\u201c\u4e2d\u56fd\u6ca1\u6709\u51fa\u53e3\u9769\u547d\u3001\u9965\u8352\u3001\u8d2b\u7a77\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u4e5f\u6ca1\u6709\u7ed9\u4f60\u4eec\u5e26\u6765\u4efb\u4f55\u9ebb\u70e6\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n<p>As President Hu has emphasized, a Sino-U.S. Partnership should be the basis for their bilateral relations, as clearly stated as the first item of his 5-point proposal in America earlier this year.<\/p>\n<p>\u6b63\u5982\u80e1\u4e3b\u5e2d\u5728\u4eca\u5e74\u65e9\u4e9b\u65f6\u5019\u5f3a\u8c03\u7684\uff0c\u4e2d\u7f8e\u4f19\u4f34\u5173\u7cfb\u662f\u53cc\u8fb9\u5173\u7cfb\u7684\u57fa\u7840\uff0c\u5e76\u5728\u4e94\u70b9\u5efa\u8bae\u4e2d\u5217\u4e3a\u7b2c\u4e00\u70b9\u3002<\/p>\n<p>In turn, President Obama has repeatedly called upon China to be the U.S.&#8217;s partner and jointly prosper in an interlinked and interdependent world. He said in remarks before his official visit to the People&#8217;s Republic in November 2009:<\/p>\n<p>\u540c\u6837\uff0c\u5965\u5df4\u9a6c\u603b\u7edf\u4e5f\u4e00\u518d\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u5e0c\u671b\u4e2d\u56fd\u80fd\u6210\u4e3a\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u5408\u4f5c\u4f19\u4f34\uff0c\u5728\u76f8\u4e92\u8054\u7cfb\u3001\u76f8\u4e92\u4f9d\u5b58\u7684\u4e16\u754c\u4e2d\u5171\u540c\u7e41\u8363\u30022009\u5e74\u6b63\u5f0f\u8bbf\u95ee\u4e2d\u56fd\u4e4b\u524d\uff0c\u5965\u5df4\u9a6c\u603b\u7edf\u66fe\u8bf4\uff1a<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;I believe in a future where China is a strong, prosperous and successful member of the community of nations, a future where our nations are partners, not out of necessity, but also out of opportunity.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>\u201c\u6211\u6240\u76f8\u4fe1\u7684\u672a\u6765\u662f\uff1a\u4e2d\u56fd\u662f\u56fd\u9645\u793e\u4f1a\u5f3a\u5927\u3001\u7e41\u8363\u548c\u6210\u529f\u7684\u4e00\u5458\uff1b\u5c4a\u65f6\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\u5c06\u4e0d\u4ec5\u662f\u51fa\u4e8e\u9700\u8981\u800c\u4e14\u4e5f\u662f\u51fa\u4e8e\u5bfb\u6c42\u673a\u9047\u6210\u4e3a\u5408\u4f5c\u7684\u4f19\u4f34\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n<p>More specifically, in a September 24 speech at the Center for a New American Security, the Deputy Secretary of State James Steinberg outlined the Obama&#8217;s new operating principle (which supplants the former administration&#8217;s calls for China to be a &#8220;responsible stakeholder&#8221; actor in the world stage as formulated by the former Deputy Secretary of State Zoellick.)<\/p>\n<p>\u66f4\u4e3a\u5177\u4f53\u7684\u4e3b\u5f20\u662f\u4f53\u73b0\u57289\u670824\u65e5\u7f8e\u56fd\u526f\u56fd\u52a1\u537f\u8a79\u59c6\u65af\u00b7\u65af\u5766\u4f2f\u683c\u5728\u65b0\u7f8e\u56fd\u5b89\u5168\u4e2d\u5fc3\u53d1\u8868\u7684\u6f14\u8bb2\u3002\u4ed6\u6982\u62ec\u4e86\u5965\u5df4\u9a6c\u7684\u4e2d\u7f8e\u5173\u7cfb\u65b0\u51c6\u5219\uff0c\u4ee5\u4ee3\u66ff\u5176\u524d\u4efb\u4f50\u5229\u514b\u547c\u5401\u4e2d\u56fd\u6210\u4e3a\u4e16\u754c\u821e\u53f0\u4e0a\u201c\u8d1f\u8d23\u4efb\u7684\u5229\u76ca\u76f8\u5173\u8005\u201d\u7684\u4e3b\u5f20\u3002<\/p>\n<p>The concept as I interpret contains an informal contract between the superpowers that U.S. reassures China that the U.S. welcomes China&#8217;s peaceful rise while China reassures the U.S. and the world that she rises not only peacefully but also rises together for mutual prosperity.<\/p>\n<p>\u5728\u6211\u770b\u6765\uff0c\u65b0\u7684\u4e3b\u5f20\u610f\u5473\u7740\u4e24\u5927\u5f3a\u56fd\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u4e00\u4efd\u975e\u6b63\u5f0f\u7ea6\u5b9a\u6216\u79f0\u4e4b\u4e3a\u5408\u540c\uff1a\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u5411\u4e2d\u56fd\u4fdd\u8bc1\u7f8e\u65b9\u6b22\u8fce\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u548c\u5e73\u5d1b\u8d77\uff0c\u53e6\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u5411\u7f8e\u56fd\u53ca\u4e16\u754c\u4fdd\u8bc1\u4e2d\u56fd\u4e0d\u4f46\u4f1a\u4ee5\u548c\u5e73\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u5d1b\u8d77\uff0c\u5176\u53d1\u5c55\u8fd8\u5c06\u4fc3\u4f7f\u53cc\u65b9\u5171\u540c\u7e41\u8363\u3002<\/p>\n<p>In a simple contract structure, there must be an offer, and there must be an acceptance of specific negotiated terms. There must be a meeting of the mind between the parties. In this case, China has offered to the world a promise of a &#8220;peaceful rise&#8221; and the world as represented by the U.S. as the leader of Pax-Americana has accepted that specific offer. Therefore, there has been a meeting of the mind between the two superpowers.<\/p>\n<p>\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u7b80\u5355\u7684\u5408\u540c\u67b6\u6784\u4e2d\uff0c\u4e00\u65b9\u5fc5\u987b\u51fa\u4ef7\uff0c\u800c\u53e6\u4e00\u65b9\u5fc5\u987b\u6839\u636e\u5177\u4f53\u534f\u5546\u7684\u6761\u4ef6\u8868\u793a\u63a5\u53d7\u3002\u5408\u540c\u53cc\u65b9\u5fc5\u987b\u8fbe\u6210\u4e00\u81f4\u3002\u5728\u4e2d\u7f8e\u5173\u7cfb\u67b6\u6784\u4e2d\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u5411\u5168\u4e16\u754c\u5f00\u51fa\u7684\u4ef7\u7801\u662f\u627f\u8bfa\u201c\u548c\u5e73\u5d1b\u8d77\u201d\uff0c\u800c\u4ee5\u7f8e\u56fd\u2014\u2014\u201c\u7f8e\u6cbb\u548c\u5e73\u4e16\u754c\u201d\u7684\u9886\u5bfc\u8005\u2014\u2014\u4e3a\u4ee3\u8868\u7684\u4e16\u754c\u5404\u56fd\u5219\u63a5\u53d7\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u51fa\u4ef7\uff0c\u4e24\u4e2a\u8d85\u7ea7\u5f3a\u56fd\u4e5f\u56e0\u6b64\u8fbe\u6210\u4e86\u4e00\u81f4\u3002<\/p>\n<p>To clarify the deal, the Deputy Secretary Steinberg formulated the deal as follows:<\/p>\n<p>\u4e3a\u660e\u786e\u8fd9\u4e00\u4ea4\u6613\u7684\u5185\u5bb9\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u526f\u56fd\u52a1\u537f\u4f5c\u4e86\u5982\u4e0b\u9610\u8ff0\uff1a<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;Strategic reassurance rests on the core, if tacit, bargain. Just as we and our allies must make clear that we are prepared to welcome China&#8217;s &#8216;arrival&#8217;&#8230;as a prosperous and successful power, China must reassure the rest of the world that its development and growing global role will not come at the expense of security and well-being of others&#8230; We in the Obama Administration will uphold the United States&#8217; side of this bargain. We are ready to accept a growing role for China on the international stage, and in many areas, we have already embraced it. China too needs to demonstrate the same commitment to doing its part &#8211; reassuring the United States, its neighbors in Asia, and the rest of the world that we have nothing to fear from a more influential China, that Beijing shares our vision of a new geopolitics of win-win solutions rather than zero-sum rivalries&#8221;.<\/p>\n<p>\u201c\u6218\u7565\u518d\u4fdd\u8bc1\u4f9d\u8d56\u4e8e\u5728\u6838\u5fc3\u5185\u5bb9\u4e0a\u5f7c\u6b64\u5fc3\u7167\u4e0d\u5ba3\u7684\u8ba8\u4ef7\u8fd8\u4ef7\u3002\u6b63\u5982\u6211\u4eec\u548c\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u76df\u53cb\u5fc5\u987b\u6e05\u695a\u5730\u8868\u660e\u6211\u4eec\u5df2\u7ecf\u51c6\u5907\u597d\u63a5\u53d7\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u7e41\u8363\u548c\u6210\u5c31\u4e00\u6837\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u4e5f\u5fc5\u987b\u5411\u4e16\u754c\u5176\u4ed6\u56fd\u5bb6\u4fdd\u8bc1\u5176\u53d1\u5c55\u548c\u65e5\u76ca\u589e\u957f\u7684\u56fd\u9645\u5f71\u54cd\u529b\u4e0d\u4f1a\u727a\u7272\u6216\u5371\u5bb3\u5230\u5176\u4ed6\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u5b89\u5168\u548c\u5229\u76ca\u2026\u2026\u5965\u5df4\u9a6c\u653f\u5e9c\u5c06\u575a\u6301\u7f8e\u56fd\u5728\u5bf9\u8bdd\u4e2d\u91c7\u53d6\u7684\u7acb\u573a\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u51c6\u5907\u63a5\u53d7\u4e2d\u56fd\u5728\u56fd\u9645\u821e\u53f0\u4e0a\u53d1\u6325\u65e5\u76ca\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\u3002\u5728\u8bb8\u591a\u9886\u57df\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5df2\u7ecf\u5bf9\u6b64\u8868\u793a\u6b22\u8fce\u3002\u4e2d\u56fd\u4e5f\u540c\u6837\u6709\u5fc5\u8981\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u5c06\u5c65\u884c\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u4e49\u52a1\uff0c\u4f7f\u7f8e\u56fd\u3001\u4e9a\u6d32\u90bb\u56fd\u548c\u5168\u4e16\u754c\u76f8\u4fe1\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u4e0d\u5fc5\u5bf9\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u6269\u5927\u6709\u4efb\u4f55\u7591\u8651\uff0c\u5317\u4eac\u65b9\u9762\u4e5f\u8ba4\u540c\u6211\u4eec\u6709\u5173\u5730\u7f18\u653f\u6cbb\u7684\u65b0\u6784\u60f3\uff0c\u5373\u8981\u6c42\u4ee5\u53cc\u8d62\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u89e3\u51b3\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u4e0d\u518d\u9677\u5165\u4f60\u6b7b\u6211\u6d3b\u7684\u96f6\u548c\u535a\u5f08\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Again as I interpret this bargain, this bargain would allow the U.S. to rebuild her teetering economy with its current about (and growing) $14 trillion in debt, an even much larger amount unfunded future liabilities, declining industrial base and broken infrastructures. On the other hand, China needs a peaceful world to renew and reinvigorate her glorious ancient 5000-year-old civilization and to become the North Star for other countries to emulate. Both strategic concepts &#8212; the U.S.&#8217;s &#8220;strategic reassurance&#8221; and China&#8217;s &#8220;peaceful rise or development&#8221; are simple, practical, sensible and workable bargain by both sides. The arrangement should logically be formalized in a form of a treaty, however this may not be feasible due to domestic politics, but just a simple a joint-venture (JV) contract in writing could be sufficient. At the same time, NOT being naive, clearly both China and the U.S. have to build up their defenses, such that clear to both beyond a reasonable doubt that a war between them is not a winable venture, and it is just too costly for either side to contemplate and to prevent either side to miscalculate that either side could possibly win in such a war. On the other hand, now more than ever both leaders must exercise restraint in a weapon built-up that could cause a sense of unbearable insecurity to the other and destabilize the balance.<\/p>\n<p>\u5728\u6211\u770b\u6765\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u4ea4\u6613\u7684\u5b9e\u73b0\u5c06\u4e3a\u7f8e\u56fd\u91cd\u632f\u5176\u6447\u6447\u6b32\u5760\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u63d0\u4f9b\u673a\u4f1a\u2014\u2014\u7f8e\u56fd\u73b0\u5728\u80cc\u8d1f\u7740\u5927\u7ea614\u4e07\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u503a\u52a1\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u6570\u76ee\u66f4\u5e9e\u5927\u7684\u672a\u6765\u503a\u52a1\uff0c\u5de5\u4e1a\u57fa\u7840\u9010\u6e10\u8001\u5316\uff0c\u57fa\u7840\u8bbe\u65bd\u5efa\u8bbe\u4e03\u96f6\u516b\u843d\u3002\u4e2d\u56fd\u4e5f\u9700\u8981\u548c\u5e73\u7684\u4e16\u754c\u73af\u5883\u4ee5\u91cd\u632f\u51765000\u5e74\u707f\u70c2\u7684\u6587\u660e\uff0c\u6210\u4e3a\u5176\u4ed6\u56fd\u5bb6\u7ade\u76f8\u6548\u4eff\u7684\u201c\u5317\u6781\u661f\u201d\u3002\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u201c\u6218\u7565\u518d\u4fdd\u8bc1\u201d\u548c\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u201c\u548c\u5e73\u5d1b\u8d77\/\u53d1\u5c55\u201d\u7684\u6218\u7565\u6982\u5ff5\u5bf9\u53cc\u65b9\u800c\u8a00\u90fd\u662f\u7b80\u5355\u3001\u5b9e\u7528\u3001\u53ef\u884c\u3001\u6709\u6548\u7684\u3002\u8fd9\u4e00\u6846\u67b6\u5b89\u6392\u6309\u7406\u5e94\u5f62\u6210\u534f\u8bae\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u9274\u4e8e\u53cc\u65b9\u7684\u56fd\u5185\u653f\u6cbb\u73af\u5883\uff0c\u7b7e\u7f72\u534f\u8bae\u4e0d\u4e00\u5b9a\u884c\u5f97\u901a\uff0c\u4e0d\u8fc7\u5c31\u7b97\u53ea\u662f\u7b80\u5355\u201c\u8054\u8425\u7ea6\u5b9a\u201d\u4e5f\u8db3\u591f\u4e86\u3002\u4e0e\u6b64\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u4e5f\u4e0d\u5fc5\u5929\u771f\uff0c\u4e2d\u7f8e\u53cc\u65b9\u663e\u7136\u90fd\u5fc5\u987b\u52a0\u5f3a\u5176\u56fd\u9632\u529b\u91cf\uff0c\u4f7f\u53cc\u65b9\u5728\u5408\u7406\u6000\u7591\u7684\u57fa\u7840\u4e0a\u660e\u767d\uff0c\u82e5\u7206\u53d1\u6218\u4e89\uff0c\u4efb\u4f55\u4e00\u65b9\u90fd\u65e0\u6cd5\u53d6\u5f97\u80dc\u5229\u3002\u4efb\u4f55\u4e00\u65b9\u610f\u56fe\u53d1\u52a8\u6218\u4e89\u6216\u8bef\u4ee5\u4e3a\u80fd\u8d62\u5f97\u6218\u4e89\u90fd\u5c06\u4ed8\u51fa\u5de8\u5927\u7684\u4ee3\u4ef7\u3002\u73b0\u5728\uff0c\u4e24\u56fd\u9886\u5bfc\u4eba\u6bd4\u4efb\u4f55\u65f6\u5019\u90fd\u66f4\u5e94\u8be5\u514b\u5236\uff0c\u907f\u514d\u7814\u53d1\u90a3\u4e9b\u4f1a\u4f7f\u5bf9\u65b9\u611f\u5230\u53d7\u5a01\u80c1\u4ece\u800c\u7834\u574f\u5e73\u8861\u7684\u6b66\u5668\u3002<\/p>\n<p>I think we can rely upon the Sino-America JV partnership, along with the so-called the &#8220;strategic reassurance&#8221;, using Steinberg&#8217;s catchphrase, or\/and Zheng Bijian&#8217;s &#8220;peaceful rise&#8221; to safeguard the global commons for all mankind to prosper and live peacefully in a global harmonious society. The most important feature of this JV is for both superpowers JUST getting along in this world.<\/p>\n<p>\u6211\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u4f9d\u6258\u4e2d\u7f8e\u8054\u8425\u4f19\u4f34\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u57fa\u4e8e\u65af\u5766\u4f2f\u683c\u6240\u8c13\u7684\u201c\u6218\u7565\u518d\u4fdd\u8bc1\u201d\u548c\/\u6216\u90d1\u5fc5\u575a\u6240\u8bf4\u7684\u201c\u548c\u5e73\u5d1b\u8d77\u201d\uff0c\u786e\u4fdd\u5168\u4eba\u7c7b\u5728\u548c\u8c10\u7684\u4e16\u754c\u4e2d\u5b9e\u73b0\u5171\u540c\u7e41\u8363\u3002\u8fd9\u4e00\u201c\u4e2d\u7f8e\u8054\u8425\u201d\u6846\u67b6\u6700\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u7279\u70b9\u5c31\u662f\u8981\u786e\u4fdd\u4e24\u5927\u8d85\u7ea7\u5f3a\u56fd\u80fd\u591f\u548c\u5e73\u5171\u5904\u3002<\/p>\n<p>On China&#8217;s part, under this JV, she is the junior partner now in the Pax-Americana, as the leader in waiting and training for ten or more years, learning the ropes so to speak of world leadership before taking the lead role as its managing partner; whereas the U.S. is in training for ten years or more, learning the ropes of how to deal with the &#8220;junior partner&#8221; now as well as how to behave as a junior partner later on under the Pax-Sino world and how to prepare domestic politics which is accustomed with political campaign rhetoric of the U.S. as the greatest power on earth and to accept nothing else but number one.<\/p>\n<p>\u5c31\u4e2d\u56fd\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u5728\u8fd9\u4e2a\u4e2d\u7f8e\u8054\u8425\u6846\u67b6\u4e0b\uff0c\u5b83\u662f\u201c\u7f8e\u6cbb\u592a\u5e73\u4e16\u754c\u201d\u4e2d\u7684\u65b0\u624b\u4f19\u4f34\uff0c\u5728\u672a\u6765\u5341\u5e74\u6216\u66f4\u957f\u65f6\u95f4\u5185\u4f5c\u4e3a\u4faf\u4efb\u7684\u548c\u8bad\u7ec3\u4e2d\u7684\u9886\u5bfc\u8005\uff0c\u5728\u786e\u7acb\u4f19\u4f34\u5173\u7cfb\u4e2d\u7684\u9886\u5bfc\u5730\u4f4d\u4e4b\u524d\uff0c\u5f97\u5230\u5386\u7ec3\u5e76\u83b7\u5f97\u9886\u5bfc\u7ecf\u9a8c\uff1b\u800c\u7f8e\u56fd\uff0c\u5728\u5341\u5e74\u6216\u66f4\u957f\u65f6\u95f4\u7684\u8bad\u7ec3\u4e2d\uff0c\u5c06\u5b66\u4f1a\u5982\u4f55\u4e0e\u65b0\u624b\u4f19\u4f34\u5171\u5904\u4ee5\u53ca\u5982\u4f55\u5728\u672a\u6765\u7684\u201c\u534e\u6cbb\u592a\u5e73\u4e16\u754c\u201d\u4e2d\u4f5c\u4e3a\u65b0\u624b\u4f19\u4f34\u751f\u5b58\uff0c\u5e76\u8c03\u6574\u5176\u4e60\u60ef\u4e8e\u201c\u7f8e\u56fd\u5929\u4e0b\u7b2c\u4e00\u201d\u7684\u56fd\u5185\u653f\u6cbb\u73af\u5883\u3002<\/p>\n<p>Why must the world accept this JV arrangement?<\/p>\n<p>\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u4e16\u754c\u5404\u56fd\u5fc5\u987b\u63a5\u53d7\u8fd9\u4e00\u4e2d\u7f8e\u8054\u8425\u6846\u67b6\u5b89\u6392\uff1f<\/p>\n<p>The key issue is for the world whether the future under Pax-Sino, which I expect after 2020, the world regime shall be either under a power politics of Sunzi&#8217;s Art of War kind of supremacy strategy &#8212; which in its core nature is a zero-sum power game &#8212; that would gather all dark armed clandestine forces of the world, employ secret agents everywhere with missions to gather all information about friends and foes alike, to spread false information to confuse friends and enemies alike, to seek, identify, torture and eliminate enemies and potential enemies, to assassinate foreign leaders and even more evil acts. Alternatively, in contrast, by a rules-based transparent &#8216;traffic light&#8217; concept of international law regime, which its core nature is a win-win basis, because the rule of law concept prescribes all states either small or large equal before the global rules-based regime and would protect their independent and sovereignty equally. This system definitely will better protect small nation-states like Singapore or Dubai of the world. Without this rules-based regime, just like our sun rises in the east and sets in the west, small nation-states would disappear and be engulfed in a pac-man like game by a bigger neighboring state. This is the highest stake that all of us citizens of the world MUST be concerned about. We don&#8217;t want to be just a pawn of great powers in their power-grabbing politics! I think the common interests of all mankind shall prevail and I believe a rules-based international regime with Sino-American partnerships with China as a full partner NOW and as an impending future managing partner by default, NOT by design, in this partnership, China must involve fully in re-shaping and re-building this new architecture of a new brave and harmonious global society, which is consistent with President Hu and the Party&#8217;s desire to build a peaceful, prosperous, harmonious society domestically as well as internationally. China has the right as a new economic superpower and an impending a military superpower to reshape the international regime not only according to her core-interests but also the core-interests of other states based on a win-win formula especially by default, NOT by design, she will be called upon in the near future from time to time to maintain and impose law and order on this Earth that we love and care so much and the one and only we have &#8212; a vulnerable fragile Gaia ecosystem, a tiny blue dot among the shining stars in the sky in our fantastically amazing universe.<\/p>\n<p>\u5bf9\u4e8e\u4e16\u754c\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u5173\u952e\u95ee\u9898\u662f\uff0c\u6211\u6240\u9884\u6599\u76842020\u5e74\u540e\u7684\u201c\u534e\u6cbb\u592a\u5e73\u4e16\u754c\u201d\u662f\u5426\u4f1a\u6210\u4e3a\u300a\u5b59\u5b50\u5175\u6cd5\u300b\u6240\u4f53\u73b0\u7684\u9738\u6743\u6218\u7565\u7684\u5f3a\u6743\u653f\u6cbb\u3002\u5176\u6838\u5fc3\u662f\u96f6\u548c\u7684\u6743\u529b\u535a\u5f08\uff0c\u96c6\u4e2d\u4e16\u754c\u4e0a\u6240\u6709\u9ed1\u6697\u7684\u3001\u79d8\u5bc6\u7684\u6b66\u88c5\u529b\u91cf\uff0c\u5728\u4e16\u754c\u5404\u5730\u5efa\u7acb\u79d8\u5bc6\u673a\u6784\uff0c\u83b7\u53d6\u670b\u53cb\u548c\u654c\u4eba\u7684\u60c5\u62a5\uff0c\u6563\u64ad\u670b\u53cb\u548c\u654c\u4eba\u7684\u8c23\u8a00\uff0c\u53d1\u73b0\u3001\u6298\u78e8\u3001\u6d88\u706d\u654c\u4eba\u548c\u6f5c\u5728\u654c\u4eba\uff0c\u6697\u6740\u5916\u56fd\u653f\u8981\uff0c\u6216\u91c7\u53d6\u6027\u8d28\u66f4\u4e3a\u6076\u52a3\u7684\u884c\u4e3a\u3002\u76f8\u53cd\u7684\u9009\u62e9\u662f\uff0c\u5efa\u7acb\u6709\u7ae0\u53ef\u5faa\u7684\u3001\u900f\u660e\u7684\u4ea4\u901a\u706f\u5f0f\u7684\u56fd\u9645\u6cd5\u5f8b\u79e9\u5e8f\uff0c\u5176\u6838\u5fc3\u662f\u53cc\u8d62\u7684\u5c40\u9762\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u6cd5\u6cbb\u5c06\u4f7f\u5404\u56fd\u4e0d\u8bba\u5927\u5c0f\u5728\u5168\u7403\u4f53\u5236\u4e2d\u90fd\u5904\u4e8e\u5e73\u7b49\u7684\u5730\u4f4d\uff0c\u5176\u72ec\u7acb\u548c\u4e3b\u6743\u4e5f\u5c06\u53d7\u5230\u4e00\u89c6\u540c\u4ec1\u7684\u4fdd\u62a4\u3002\u8fd9\u4e00\u4f53\u7cfb\u5fc5\u5c06\u66f4\u597d\u5730\u4fdd\u62a4\u65b0\u52a0\u5761\u6216\u8fea\u62dc\u7b49\u5c0f\u56fd\u7684\u5229\u76ca\u3002\u5982\u679c\u4e16\u754c\u7684\u7ba1\u7406\u4e0d\u80fd\u50cf\u592a\u9633\u4ece\u4e1c\u65b9\u5347\u8d77\u4ece\u897f\u65b9\u843d\u4e0b\u90a3\u6837\u6709\u7ae0\u53ef\u5faa\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\uff0c\u5c0f\u56fd\u5c06\u5982\u201c\u5403\u8c46\u4eba\u201d\u6e38\u620f\u822c\u88ab\u5f3a\u5927\u7684\u90bb\u56fd\u6240\u541e\u6ca1\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u9010\u6e10\u6d88\u5931\u3002\u4e16\u754c\u4e0a\u7684\u6bcf\u4e2a\u516c\u6c11\u90fd\u5e94\u8003\u8651\u5230\u8fd9\u4e00\u6700\u9ad8\u98ce\u9669\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u4e0d\u5e0c\u671b\u6210\u4e3a\u5927\u56fd\u5f3a\u6743\u653f\u6cbb\u6e38\u620f\u7684\u727a\u7272\u54c1\uff01\u6211\u8ba4\u4e3a\u4eba\u7c7b\u7684\u5171\u540c\u5229\u76ca\u5c06\u6218\u80dc\u4e00\u5207\u3002\u6211\u76f8\u4fe1\u5728\u4f9d\u6258\u4e2d\u7f8e\u4f19\u4f34\u5173\u7cfb\u7684\u6cd5\u6cbb\u7684\u56fd\u9645\u79e9\u5e8f\u4e2d\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u5f53\u524d\u662f\u4f19\u4f34\u5173\u7cfb\u7684\u5168\u9762\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\uff0c\u9a6c\u4e0a\u5c31\u5c06\u81ea\u52a8\u800c\u975e\u7cbe\u5fc3\u8bbe\u8ba1\u5730\u6210\u4e3a\u4f19\u4f34\u5173\u7cfb\u7684\u4e3b\u5bfc\u8005\u2014\u2014\u4e2d\u56fd\u5fc5\u987b\u5168\u9762\u53c2\u4e0e\u91cd\u5efa\u4e00\u4e2a\u5168\u65b0\u7684\u3001\u52c7\u6562\u7684\u3001\u548c\u8c10\u7684\u5168\u7403\u793e\u4f1a\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e5f\u7b26\u5408\u80e1\u4e3b\u5e2d\u4ee5\u53ca\u5171\u4ea7\u515a\u5efa\u8bbe\u548c\u5e73\u7e41\u8363\u7684\u548c\u8c10\u793e\u4f1a\u4e0e\u548c\u8c10\u4e16\u754c\u7684\u76ee\u6807\u3002\u4f5c\u4e3a\u4e00\u4e2a\u65b0\u5174\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5927\u56fd\u4ee5\u53ca\u6f5c\u5728\u7684\u519b\u4e8b\u5927\u56fd\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u6709\u6743\u81ea\u52a8\u800c\u975e\u7cbe\u5fc3\u8bbe\u8ba1\u5730\u6839\u636e\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u5229\u76ca\u4ee5\u53ca\u5728\u53cc\u8d62\u57fa\u7840\u4e0a\u7684\u5176\u4ed6\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u5229\u76ca\u91cd\u5851\u56fd\u9645\u79e9\u5e8f\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u5728\u4e0d\u4e45\u7684\u5c06\u6765\uff0c\u5176\u4ed6\u56fd\u5bb6\u5c06\u65f6\u4e0d\u65f6\u5730\u9700\u8981\u4e2d\u56fd\u7ad9\u51fa\u6765\u7ef4\u6301\u5730\u7403\u4e0a\u7684\u79e9\u5e8f\u548c\u6cd5\u5f8b\u2014\u2014\u6211\u4eec\u53ea\u6709\u8fd9\u4e00\u4e2a\u5730\u7403\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5bf9\u5176\u7684\u5173\u5fc3\u548c\u7231\u62a4\u96be\u4ee5\u8a00\u8868\uff0c\u5730\u7403\u7684\u751f\u6001\u7cfb\u7edf\u662f\u5982\u6b64\u8106\u5f31\uff0c\u5b83\u53ea\u662f\u6211\u4eec\u4e0d\u53ef\u601d\u8bae\u7684\u5b87\u5b99\u4e2d\u95ea\u70c1\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u5c0f\u84dd\u70b9\u3002<\/p>\n<p>By accepting China as a full partner NOW and a future managing partner who fully engages in re-shaping, re-building and managing the world affairs is a realistic power-politicking as long as at the same time this power is constraint by a traffic light type rule of law global regime that all members must subscribe to WITHOUT exception for the common good, if not each one of us should be ready to be ruled by bloody red tooth and claw, hence we are all doomed living in fear, brutal, dangerous and cruel fate in our bloody red dot, shedding our blood and that of our children and grand children&#8230;.<\/p>\n<p>\u6211\u4eec\u9700\u8981\u63a5\u53d7\u4e2d\u56fd\u73b0\u5728\u6210\u4e3a\u5168\u9762\u5408\u4f5c\u4f19\u4f34\uff0c\u5e76\u63a5\u53d7\u5176\u672a\u6765\u4ee5\u5b9e\u9645\u4e3b\u5bfc\u8005\u89d2\u8272\u5168\u9762\u53c2\u4e0e\u91cd\u5851\u3001\u91cd\u5efa\u548c\u7ba1\u7406\u4e16\u754c\u4e8b\u52a1\u3002\u53ea\u8981\u8fd9\u79cd\u6743\u529b\u540c\u65f6\u53d7\u5230\u4ea4\u901a\u706f\u5f0f\u7684\u5168\u7403\u6cd5\u5236\u79e9\u5e8f\u7684\u7ea6\u675f\uff0c\u5bf9\u4e2d\u56fd\u89d2\u8272\u7684\u63a5\u53d7\u5c31\u662f\u73b0\u5b9e\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u9009\u62e9\u3002\u4e3a\u4e86\u5168\u4e16\u754c\u7684\u5171\u540c\u5229\u76ca\uff0c\u5404\u56fd\u65e0\u4e00\u4f8b\u5916\u90fd\u5fc5\u987b\u9075\u5b88\u8fd9\u4e00\u5168\u7403\u79e9\u5e8f\uff0c\u5426\u5219\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u6bcf\u4e2a\u4eba\u90fd\u5c06\u751f\u6d3b\u5728\u66b4\u529b\u4e0e\u8840\u8165\u5f53\u4e2d\uff0c\u751f\u6d3b\u5728\u6050\u60e7\u3001\u6b8b\u66b4\u3001\u5371\u9669\u3001\u6b8b\u9177\u7684\u4e16\u754c\u4e2d\uff0c\u4ee5\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u8840\u3001\u6211\u4eec\u5b50\u5b50\u5b59\u5b59\u7684\u8840\u4e3a\u4ee3\u4ef7\u2026\u2026<\/p>\n<p>To sum up, echoing the spirit of Shanghai Expo and its slogan &#8220;Better city, Better life&#8221;: let us ASK and DEMAND all nations to &#8220;Better cooperate, Better co-develop, Better co-rise, Better life&#8221; in a harmonious but diversified global society that promises to all mankind a better peaceful, prosperous, free and quiet life.<\/p>\n<p>\u603b\u800c\u8a00\u4e4b\uff0c\u4e3a\u4e86\u547c\u5e94\u4e0a\u6d77\u4e16\u535a\u4f1a\u7684\u7cbe\u795e\u53ca\u5176\u201c\u57ce\u5e02\uff0c\u8ba9\u751f\u6d3b\u66f4\u7f8e\u597d\u201d\u7684\u53e3\u53f7\uff0c\u8ba9\u6211\u4eec\u547c\u5401\u5e76\u8981\u6c42\u5404\u56fd\u201c\u66f4\u597d\u5730\u5408\u4f5c\u3001\u66f4\u597d\u5730\u5171\u540c\u53d1\u5c55\u3001\u66f4\u597d\u5730\u5171\u540c\u5d1b\u8d77\uff0c\u66f4\u597d\u5730\u5171\u540c\u751f\u6d3b\u201d\uff0c\u4e3a\u4e86\u5728\u548c\u8c10\u591a\u5143\u7684\u5168\u7403\u793e\u4f1a\u4e2d\u4e3a\u5168\u4eba\u7c7b\u521b\u9020\u66f4\u52a0\u7f8e\u597d\u7684\u548c\u5e73\u3001\u7e41\u8363\u3001\u81ea\u7531\u3001\u5b89\u5b81\u7684\u751f\u6d3b\u3002<\/p>\n<p>Thank you very much for listening.<\/p>\n<p>\u8c22\u8c22\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A Joint-Venture between Sino-America for better cooperation, better co-development, better co-rising and better life to all mankind. A\u00a0keynote\u00a0Speech\u00a0at\u00a0Shanghai\u00a0Forum\u00a0on\u00a0May\u00a029,\u00a02010 by Prof. Leo KoGuan This is my really great honor to give a key note address to such distinguished and knowledgeable audience.<span class=\"ellipsis\">&hellip;<\/span><\/p>\n<div class=\"read-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.leokoguanfoundation.org\/?p=129\">Read more &#8250;<\/a><\/div>\n<p><!-- end of .read-more --><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-129","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-7"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.leokoguanfoundation.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/129","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.leokoguanfoundation.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.leokoguanfoundation.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.leokoguanfoundation.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.leokoguanfoundation.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=129"}],"version-history":[{"count":6,"href":"https:\/\/www.leokoguanfoundation.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/129\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1048,"href":"https:\/\/www.leokoguanfoundation.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/129\/revisions\/1048"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.leokoguanfoundation.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=129"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.leokoguanfoundation.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=129"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.leokoguanfoundation.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=129"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}